The 98th Academy Awards are this coming Sunday, so I thought I'd share my predictions and, when applicable, my alternative picks...
Best Picture
The Nominees:
- Bugonia
- F1
- Frankestein
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- The Secret Agent
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners
- Train Dreams
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win:* One Battle After Another
My Actual Favorite:** It Was Just An Accident
Notes: Until recently, I would have told you that One Battle After Another was my favorite movie of the year. But Jafar Panahi's Palme d'Or-winning film about a group of Iranians who have an opportunity to exact revenge on the person who tortured them while they were imprisoned for political reasons has never left my mind since I saw it back in October. So, when I rewatched it recently, I realized it was my true favorite film of the year.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- It Was Just An Accident
- The Secret Agent
- Eddington
- Sorry, Baby
- Weapons
*limited to the actual nominees
**out of all 2025 releases that I saw
Best Directing
The Nominees:
- Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
- Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
- Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
- Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
- Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Should Win: Ryan Coogler – Sinners
My Actual Favorite: Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Notes: I love One Battle After Another and think it's a great achievement of direction, among its meany other stunning attributes. But that said, the sheer inventiveness and high-wire act of balancing so many genres, styles, and themes in Sinners to me stands as the most outstanding showcase of direction of the year. Also, not for nothing, but PTA definitely should already havew an Oscar for directing from one of his previous films.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- Jafar Panahi – It Was Just An Accident
Best Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees:
- Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
- Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
- Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
- Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
- Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
My Actual Favorite: Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Notes: Honestly, it really seems like just about any of these guys could win. The most surprising would be if DiCaprio takes it, though. And I do think it's ultimately down to Jordan and Chalamet – and for good reason since they both gave stunning performances. I think Wagner Moura might be right behind them thanks to the big support for Brazilian films in the Academy in recent years. But in the end, they're all great performances and I'd be happy to see any of them win.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- Joaquin Phoenix – Eddington
Best Actress in a Leading Role
The Nominees:
- Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
- Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
- Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
- Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
- Emma Stone – Bugonia
Will Win: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Should Win: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
My Actual Favorite: Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby
Notes: Buckley has seemed to have a lock on this forever, so they only surprise here would be if she doesn't win. For the record, I have not seen Song Sung Blue. Also, for what it's worth, I thought Emma Stone should have been considered in the Supporting category.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby
- Alicia Vikander – The Assessment
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees:
- Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
- Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
- Delroy Lindo – Sinners
- Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
- Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Should Win: Delroy Lindo – Sinners
My Actual Favorite: Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Notes: This one is really hard to predict. My gut says Skarsgård will take it (though I thought that was a Lead performance), but I wouldn't be surprised by BdT, Penn, or even Lindo winning. By the way, I also think Elordi was a Lead performance.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- Nicholas Hoult – Superman
- Ralph Fiennes – 28 Years Later
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
The Nominees:
- Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
- Amy Madigan – Weapons
- Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
- Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
Will Win: Amy Madigan – Weapons
Should Win: Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
My Actual Favorite: Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
Notes: The way Teyana Taylor absolutely holds the first half hour or so of One Battle After Another is astounding. And it's entirely possible she could win, though I think she, Mosaku, and Madigan are likely in a dead heat that Madigan will edge out. All of these performances are great, though.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- Rachel Brosnahan – Superman
- Felicity Jones – Train Dreams
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
The Nominees:
- Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow
- It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi; in collaboration with Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian
- Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
- Sentimental Value – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
- Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Will Win: Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Should Win: Sinners – Ryan Coogler
My Actual Favorite: Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Notes: The Academy has perhaps developed a bad habit of award Black filmmakers with a Screenplay Oscar as something of a consolation prize for their films not winning Best Picture or Director. But that doesn't mean Sinners isn't one of the most original stories written for the screen in a while and deserving of the award.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- Eddington – Ari Aster
- The Secret Agent – Kleber Mendonça Filho
- The Assessment – Dave Thomas, Nell Garfath-Cox, and John Donnelly
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
The Nominees:
- Bugonia – Will Tracy; based on the film Save the Green Planet! by Jang Joon-hwan
- Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro; based on the novel by Mary Shelley
- Hamnet – Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell; based on the novel by Maggie O'Farrell
- One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson; based on the novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon
- Train Dreams – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; based on the novella by Denis Johnson
Will Win: One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
Should Win: One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
My Actual Favorite: One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
Notes: OBAA is really good! What else can I say?
Should Have Been Nominated:
- 28 Years Later – Alex Garland
- Peter Hujar's Day – Ira Sachs, based on the book by Linda Rosenkrantz
Best Animated Feature Film
The Nominees:
- Arco
- Elio
- KPop Demon Hunters
- Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
- Zootopia 2
Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Should Win: n/a
My Actual Favorite: Zootopia 2
Notes: It turns out Zootopia 2 is the only animated film released in 2025 that I actually saw, so I need to watch the other nominees and don't have much else to say.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- n/a
Best International Feature Film
The Nominees:
- It Was Just an Accident
- The Secret Agent
- Sentimental Value
- Sirāt
- The Voice of Hind Rajab
Will Win: Sentimental Value
Should Win: It Was Just an Accident
My Actual Favorite: It Was Just an Accident
Notes: I'm really just guessing here (even more so than other categories, I mean) because I think any of these movies could win. And I haven't had a chance to see The Voice of Hind Rajab yet, but the other four are all great. Oh, also, I know a lot of people thought No Other Choice should have been nominated here, but I didn't like it as much as those people did – I mean, it was definitely good, just not quite my thing on first viewing.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- n/a
Best Documentary Feature Film
The Nominees:
- The Alabama Solution
- Come See Me in the Good Light
- Cutting Through Rocks
- Mr. Nobody Against Putin
- The Perfect Neighbor
Will Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Should Win: The Perfect Neighbor
My Actual Favorite: The Perfect Neighbor
Notes: I've only seen The Alabama Solution and The Perfect Neighbor. Both are good, but the latter was one of my favorite documentaries of recent years.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- Megadoc
- DEVO
Best Documentary Short Film
The Nominees:
- All the Empty Rooms
- Armed Only with a Camera
- Children No More: "Were and Are Gone"
- The Devil is Busy
- Perfectly a Strangeness
Will Win: Armed Only with a Camera
Should Win: n/a
My Actual Favorite: n/a
Notes: I haven't had a chance to see any of these yet, though a few are certainly on my watchlist and available on streaming. My guess here is purely based on the topic of the film and what I think the Academy has a tendency to recognize.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- n/a
Best Live Action Short Film
The Nominees:
- Butcher's Stain
- A Friend of Dorothy
- Jane Austen's Period Drama
- The Singers
- Two People Exchanging Saliva
Will Win: A Friend of Dorothy
Should Win: n/a
My Actual Favorite: n/a
Notes: Similar to the Documentary Short category, I haven't seen any of these films, so I'm basing this on the subject of the film.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- n/a
Best Animated Short Film
The Nominees:
- Butterfly
- Forevergreen
- The Girl Who Cried Pearls
- Retirement Plan
- The Three Sisters
Will Win: The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Should Win: n/a
My Actual Favorite: n/a
Notes: Haven't seen these, so wild guess...
Should Have Been Nominated:
- n/a
Best Music (Original Score)
The Nominees:
- Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix
- Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat
- Hamnet – Max Richter
- One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood
- Sinners – Ludwig Göransson
Will Win: Sinners – Ludwig Göransson
Should Win: One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood
My Actual Favorite: TIE: Marty Supreme – Daniel Lopatin; Sirāt – Kangding Ray
Notes: Look, none of these nominees is bad. Of those nominated, Jonny Greenwood's is the one that's stayed with me the most. Everything about Sinners' music is great, but if I'm parsing the score from the songs, it's really the songs that stand out there. Of course, if the Academy gave two shits about electronic scores, this would be a whole different ballgame because how the hell do you overlook Marty Supreme and Sirāt for their stunning, essential scores? I think I might actually write something about electronic scores that the Academy has ignored over the years.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- Marty Supreme – Daniel Lopatin
- Sirāt – Kangding Ray
- Train Dreams – Bryce Dessner
Best Music (Original Song)
The Nominees:
- "Dear Me" from Diane Warren: Relentless – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren
- "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters – Music and lyrics by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park
- "I Lied to You" from Sinners – Music and lyrics by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson
- "Sweet Dreams of Joy" from Viva Verdi! – Music and lyrics by Nicholas Pike
- "Train Dreams" from Train Dreams – Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyrics by Nick Cave
Will Win: "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters
Should Win: "I Lied to You" from Sinners
My Actual Favorite: "I Lied to You" from Sinners
Notes: KPop Demonhunters is the kind of phenomenom that the Academy likes to honor and though I haven't seen the movie yet, I've listened to the song and, spoiler alert, it's good! And though I love that a song that's actually integral to the movie is going to win (unlike some years), the same can certainly be said about "I Lied to You," which is a damned showstopper.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- n/a
Best Sound
The Nominees:
- F1 – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta
- Frankenstein – Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, and Brad Zoern
- One Battle After Another – José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio, and Tony Villaflor
- Sinners – Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, and Steve Boeddeker
- Sirāt – Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, and Yasmina Praderas
Will Win: F1
Should Win: Sirāt
My Actual Favorite: Sirāt
Notes: My prediction here is based on the fact that the Academy often awards the most sound, whether it's the best or not.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- Eddington
- Superman
Best Casting
The Nominees:
- Hamnet – Nina Gold
- Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti
- One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis
- The Secret Agent – Gabriel Domingues
- Sinners – Francine Maisler
Will Win: One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis
Should Win: Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti
My Actual Favorite: Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti
Notes: This being the first year this category is included, I'm still admittedly trying to wrap my head around how you separate good casting from a good cast because I know they're not the same thing, but I'm not entirely sure how to parse them. But if the best casting relies on building a great cast that mixes well-known faces with unknown ones and ones you haven't seen in a while or are maybe seeing in a new or unexpected context, that certainly sounds like Marty Supreme to me.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- Weapons
- Sirāt
Best Production Design
The Nominees:
- Frankenstein – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
- Hamnet – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
- Marty Supreme – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
- One Battle After Another – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
- Sinners – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne
Will Win: Marty Supreme
Should Win: Marty Supreme
My Actual Favorite: Marty Supreme
Notes: The fact that Jack Fisk is a legendary production designer and art director who's responsible for the looks of Badlands, Carrie, Eraserhead, Days of Heaven, The Thin Red Line, Mulholland Drive, The New World, There Will Be Blood, The Tree of Life, The Master, and Killers of the Flower Moon, just to name more than a few, and has still never won an Oscar for that work, is plenty of reason to think he might win here. It also helps that the production design of Marty Supreme happens to be as superb as you';d expect from someone with his track record and is beyond integral to the storytelling and success of the film. All that said, the production design of every nominee is pretty great.
Should Have Been Nominated:***
- The Secret Agent
- 28 Years Later
- The Assessment
- Nouvelle Vague
- Warfare
***whereas, for other categories, I'm listing options I'd prefer to some of the nominees, all the nominees here are impressive enough that these are more alternatives than replacements
Best Cinematography
The Nominees:
- Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen
- Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji
- One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman
- Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
- Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso
Will Win: One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman
Should Win: Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji
My Actual Favorite: Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji
Notes: I kind of fucking hate the cinematography in Frankenstein, but the others are all superb.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- Sirāt
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees:
- Frankenstein – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey
- Kokuho – Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, and Tadashi Nishimatsu
- Sinners – Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, and Shunika Terry
- The Smashing Machine – Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, and Bjoern Rehbein
- The Ugly Stepsister – Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
Will Win: Frankenstein
Should Win: Frankenstein
My Actual Favorite: 28 Years Later
Notes: I haven't seen 3 of the nominees, but the look of Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein is impressive as hell.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- Weapons
- 28 Years Later
- Superman
Best Costume Design
The Nominees:
- Avatar: Fire and Ash – Deborah L. Scott
- Frankenstein – Kate Hawley
- Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska
- Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi
- Sinners – Ruth E. Carter
Will Win: Frankenstein – Kate Hawley
Should Win: Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi
My Actual Favorite: Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi
Notes: Avatar: Fire and Ash getting nominated here makes me laugh. The other four nominees are all worthy, but I do wish the Academy was better about recognizing costume design in stories taking place in the present day.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- One Battle After Another
- Eddington
- Sirāt
Best Film Editing
The Nominees:
- F1 – Stephen Mirrione
- Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
- One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen
- Sentimental Value – Olivier Bugge Coutté
- Sinners – Michael P. Shawver
Will Win: One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen
Should Win: Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
My Actual Favorite: Sirāt – Cristóbal Fernández
Notes: This is the category that F1 is nominated in that I'd be least salty about it winning. But I think this is probably a race between OBAA and Sinners because they're thr two biggest movies of the year. And both are incredibly well edited.
Should Have Been Nominated:
- Sirāt
- The Perfect Neighbor
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees:
- Avatar: Fire and Ash – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett
- F1 – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, and Keith Dawson
- Jurassic World Rebirth – David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, and Neil Corbould
- The Lost Bus – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin
- Sinners – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, and Donnie Dean
Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
My Actual Favorite: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Notes: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Should Have Been Nominated:
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
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